androp[s83,jmc]		Andropov shows his hand

Some hints as to Andropov's policies are beginning to appear.  One would
expect that when the head of the KGB becomes head of the Government,
the KGB's methods will be emphasized in the conduct of domestic and
foreign policy.  This is borne out by the following hints:

1. Arbatov took part in a meeting with prominent American Democrats and
negotiated a nuclear free strip in Central Europe.  Of course, Arbatov
explicitly didn't commit the Soviet Government, since the meeting was
unofficial.  However, it achieved the Soviet objective of committing
prominent Americans to an agreement that doesn't correspond to the policy
of the Reagan Administration.  Consequently, the Democrats in question are
mobilizing their friends to oppose the Administration.  Needless to say,
Arbatov won't and can't embarrass the Soviet Government by writing Pravda
articles pressing proposals that don't correspond to its negotiating
position.

2. A member of Arbatov's Institute of the U.S.A. wrote an article in
Forbes Magazine suggesting that Reaganomics might work.  This gives
the impression among American businessmen that there are people you
can talk to in Moscow.  It will help create the next wave of businessmen
who will go to Moscow, be wined and dined, and leave free samples, and
return to protest the unreasonable policy of the U.S. Government.  It
will take a year or two to disillusion them.

3. The following NY Times news story about an Andropov interview makes
a cynical proposal to give the U.S. a free hand in Central America in
exchange for a free hand in Afghanistan.  It is conceivable that
Andropov thinks that way and the offer is in some sense genuine.  However,
it involves giving away something that belongs to someone else in
exchange something he wants.  More likely, Andropov is fully aware
that the obstacles to the U.S. in Central America are not the Soviet
Union at all, but the internal politics of the U.S., so he isn't giving
anything away at all.  He quite reasonably expects that the liberals
in the U.S. will succeed in preventing the Reagan Administration from
saving El Salvador.

All three of these events show that the Soviet propaganda apparatus
is taking advantage of the fact that it is entirely possible to take
one position in one forum and another in another.  Just in order to
put Americans in opposition to their Government, Arbatov can put his
name on agreements that may not correspond to the line Soviet negotiators
are taking or will take.

An official of the U.S.A. Institute can write an article in Forbes
saying that Reaganomics may work in order to oppress American business
men without embarrassing communist propagandists taking the line that
Reagans policies are an economic disaster.

Andropov can offer to trade Afghanistan for Nicaragua without embarrassing
his propagandists who pledge Soviet support for the heroic people of
Nicaragua.

Here is the news story with the part about Nicaragua and Afghanistan.

n078  1635  23 Apr 83
AM-ANDROPOV
Compares Afghan Actions to U.S. in Central America
By JOHN TAGLIABUE
c. 1983 N.Y. Times News Service
    BONN, West Germany - Yuri V. Andropov, in an interview with the West
German news magazine Der Spiegel, contends that the Soviet military
presence in Afghanistan is analogous to what he termed United States
efforts to protect its national interests in Central America.
*****
    Andropov asked: ''Would the United States not care what kind of
government rules in Nicaragua? Nicaragua is an enormous distance from
America. We have a common border with Afghanistan, and we are
defending our national interests by helping Afghanistan.''
*****
    Repeating the Soviet view that the West sought to use Pakistan to
topple Afghanistan's Communist regime, he said Pakistan was ''held by
the elbows, from somewhere across the sea.''
    The Soviet leader, who was interviewed in Moscow by Rudolf Augstein,
the magazine's publisher, said it was ''not our intention to stay in
Afghanistan.'' He added, ''Political talks are under way.''
    But he said that ''with the help of the United Nations and its
secretary general, Perez De Cuellar, we believe we can achieve
success on some reasonable basis.''
    The interview, which is to be published Monday, ranged from
international politics to Andropov's tastes in music. Andropov also
repeated his warning that Moscow would ''find a way to answer'' if
the United States stationed additional medium-range missiles in
Europe.
    Asked whether fruitful arms talks could occur in a climate in which
President Reagan referred to the Soviet Union as a ''center of
evil,'' Andropov said Moscow would overlook ''this baseless claim''
if Washington accepted ''reasonable proposals about detente as such,
or about Europe or the SS-20 missiles.''
    Questioned about the recent expulsion of Soviet diplomats from
France on charges of espionage, he said the diplomats were engaged in
legitimate information gathering ''condoned by international
diplomatic conventions.'' He said the French action was
''intentionally aimed at worsening Soviet-French relations.''
    In a statement issued in answer to questions submitted before the
conversation, Andropov accused the United States of not negotiating
seriously at the Geneva arms talks.
    
nyt-04-23-83 1933est